Editorial

The Razor’s Edge

War is permanent, Peace is not. The people of Afghanistan have reason to fear a repeat of what happened after Soviet withdrawal in the early 1990s—no end to war, but escalation of an internecine bloodbath for power and domination among multiple forces, including the major player—Taliban. Iraq where war was officially over in 2011, is still bleeding from the sectarian and ethnic violence stimulated by the cladestine American presence and Washington’s divisive diplomacy. The nightmare that Iraq’s peolple face despite an elected government of their own provides an example of the kind of ‘peace and stability’ that the Obama administration could live with in Afghanistan.

Suddenly the Taliban are hitting the headlines, not for ‘wrong reasons’ this time. American strategists are allegedly talking with the Taliban, hoping to make a secret deal, without taking into confidence their point-one man in Kabul— Hamid Karzai. These days the rulers of Pakistan too are openly dating with their old friends—the Taliban. All are interested in post-2014 power equation and too many stakeholders are creating a lasting problem instead of resolving it.

In recent weeks Afghan President Hamid Karzai has accused the US administration of colluding with the Taliban, secretly of course, possibly demanding a written guarantee for a ‘token’ American presence on Afghan soil in post-Karzai governance.

That both America and Pakistan cannot have their way in Afghan affairs without making some concessions to the Taliban is a fact of life. Also Karzai opponents in the present dispensation are trying to woo the Taliban so that they could make it in the event of a national interim government is an open secret and a bone of contention as well with the followers of Karzai. The usefulness of Karzai to US policy makers seems to be over. So America and European Union are trying to open dialogue with the Taliban though Karzai is impatiently insisting on any kind of talks with the Taliban with his government only. But the Uncle Sam is not listening. Nor will his opposition to opening of the Taliban office in Qatar succeed because the White House people are in a hurry to recruit new proxies in Afghanistan and South Asia as well, particularly in Pakistan. Withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan is basically aimed at pivoting to east Asia, ostensibly to pressurise China—the second largest economy of the world and America’s top most trade partner. ‘American marines have been deployed in Australia and 60 percent of US warships are likely to be engaged in the pacific by 2020, further militarising an already tense region’. All this is happening against the backdrop of China’s growing assertion in territorial disputes with several other east Asian nations in South China sea.

In truth it is another kind of regime change for the Afghans. And the fall-out of Afghan political turmoil is bound to impact Pakistan’s polity as well while forcing India to fine-tune its foreign policy in a changing global landscape. Maybe, America is contemplating a regime change in Islamabad as well since not for nothing Musharraf is coming back to Pakistan after a self-imposed exile for two years in London and Dubai. That Pakistan is at a crossroads is as clear as anything else. The government in Islamabad has so far failed to contain rising violence against security establishments and minorities by the Pakistani Taliban and other jihadi forces. The ruling parties are just rubber stamp for the Pakistani military which looks divided over how to exert its influence in Afghanistan beyond 2014. The old Taliban days are unlikely to return. They are not as useful as they were during anti-Soviet campaign by America, utilising Pakistan as their trusted front-ranking lackey.

Interestingly, American casualties in Afghanistan are on the decline, with the approach of deadline for pull-out. In reality innocent civilians are the main target in the on-going armed conflict. Over 50 percent of all civilian deaths and injuries result from the use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) or tactics that employ these devices, such as suicide bombing as per the latest report by the United Nations High Commission for Human Rights. There were fewer civilian casualties in 2012 resulting from ground combat and military operations. Most of the fatal casualties resulted from the deliberate targeting of civilians by anti-government elements. One reason Washington is cold-shouldering with Karzai is refusal by the Taliban leadership to negotiate with the present government dispensation in Kabul as they see it as a puppet of foreign powers. They did the same thing by refusing to negotiate with the erstwhile Nazibullah government as they would dub it a Russian proxy while insisting on direct consultations with the Russians in those days. Between January 1 and November 30, 2012 targeted killings and attempted killings carried by anti-government elements were responsible for 641 civilian deaths and 359 injuries, more than double the casualties documented in the same period in 2011.

As in Iraq women and children are the worst victims of continuing conflict in Afghanistan, particularly in the eastern province bordering Pakistan. 69 percent of child casualties were attributed to militants in the year gone. The UN High Commission’s report found that 20 children on average were killed and injured per week across the country during 2012.

Children in Iraq are still dying and will continue to die for years to come. An almost identical scenario prevails in Afghanistan.

Frontier
Vol. 45, No. 38, Mar31-Apr 6, 2013

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